Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Cu, 07.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 14NM EYE WITH DEEP
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS SHALLOW AND STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A 061721Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
MUCH LARGER EYE SURROUNDING THE REMNANTS OF THE SMALLER MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95
KNOTS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, INDICATED BY A
POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE TYPHOON; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA
SOUNDING AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TY SOUDELOR IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN
THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO 105
KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND
INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 24, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A
WEAK TYPHOON. BY TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION OVER
LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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