MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 31// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 14NM EYE WITH DEEP BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS SHALLOW AND STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A 061721Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MUCH LARGER EYE SURROUNDING THE REMNANTS OF THE SMALLER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, INDICATED BY A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE TYPHOON; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA SOUNDING AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 24, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON. BY TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN