Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Per, 13.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
121609Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE
CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS BUT GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PORTION DUE
TO THE WESTERLIES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL,
EXPECT LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, MAINLY DUE
TO GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS
WILL OFFSET THE OUTFLOW AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP, RESULTING IN A
WEAKENING TREND. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 12, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL COMMENCE. TS 15W WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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