MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM NORTH OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH NOW SHOWS A DEVELOPING EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. TS 16W TRACKED JUST NORTH OF ROTA WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF ABOUT 989MB AT 1843Z; SAIPAN OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 KNOTS GUSTING TO 49 KNOTS AT 1154Z; AND ANDERSEN AFB OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS. IN GENERAL, THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCETION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN