Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Paz, 16.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM NORTH
OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH NOW SHOWS A DEVELOPING EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. TS
16W TRACKED JUST NORTH OF ROTA WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF ABOUT 989MB AT
1843Z; SAIPAN OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 49 KNOTS AT 1154Z; AND ANDERSEN AFB OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS. IN GENERAL, THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A
NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI
VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCETION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN
OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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