MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 10- NM EYE. A 151719Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY GONI IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 15/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SITUATION AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WEAKENING THE STR NORTH OF TY 16W. ADDITIONALLY, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF HONSHU UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, TY 16W IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND EXHIBIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION NEAR TAIWAN. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 16W IN THE WEST SEA. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN