Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Sa, 16.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151834Z 85
GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL STORM
STRUCTURE WITH THE CONVECTION NO LONGER DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND FROM THE SSMI
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT
IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TS 23W GAINS
LATITUDE AND OPENS DISTANCE FROM TY 22W. TS 23W WILL ENTER THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN NEAR TAU 48 AND UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A FULLY BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU
72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS
CONTINUING TO BE THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL
UNDERSTOOD STEERING PATTERN AND THE GOOD GROUPING IN DYNAMIC
MODELS.//
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