Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Paz, 21.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE TOPS, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, HAVE
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PARTIAL EYE
FEATURE ON A 201620Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN. AFTERWARDS, THE STR WILL BUILD AND CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN, AND LATER ON
WITH THE CHINESE COAST, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL ERODE AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
NEAR SHANGHAI. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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