Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory Paz, 21.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A DEVELOPING LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN OLDER 201127Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AGREEING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS AND DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF A STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. AS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST,
EXPECT TD 08W TO BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHWARD
ROUTE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND THAT, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND LEIZHOU
PENINSULA WILL CAUSE 08W TO DECAY.
   C. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT DEPICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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