Tropical Storm VONGFONG Advisory Cts, 11.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED 9 NM EYE WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND RAGGED. A 101842Z
SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WHILE THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS STARTED TO
DETERIORATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND
DUE TO THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE
POLEWARD SIDE DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 19W HAS STARTED
TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS SOME MIGRATORY RIDGING HAS
STARTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY OVER NEXT 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND PRESS UPON THE STR CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN AND BEGINS TO GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
PROCESS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND JAPANS RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS THE ETT PROCESS CONTINUES. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW EAST OF HOKKAIDO. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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