Tropical Storm RAMMASUN Advisory Pzt, 14.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND WEAKEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED
WITH A RECENT 131939Z SSMI PARTIAL PASS SHOWING THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) PERSISTS OVER
THE LLCC. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS AS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPROVING, WITH
DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO SHOWING A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TS 09W IS QUICKLY TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. LANDFALL INTO THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES IS FORECAST FOR TAU 36, LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND AS THE CIRCULATION CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. AFTER
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE
TS 09W TO START INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS RAMMASUN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TOWARDS
NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 120 INTO THE
LUICHOW PENINSULA. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DECREASED VWS, AND
INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ALLOW FOR RE-
INTENSIFICATION REACHING 80 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED BUT IS
OTHERWISE TIGHTLY GROUPED. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
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