Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Cts, 09.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE TYPHOON HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE. A 081728Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL
IN NORTHEASTERN LUZON AROUND TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TY NOUL WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL UNDER THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIMEFRAME DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION BUT TRACK SPEEDS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD,
EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
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