Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory Pzt, 06.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116
NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, FULLY EXPOSING A NOW RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC FEATURE ON THE NPP
882BT MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, A  POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
WAYWARD CONVECTION. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER TWO
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS: A WEAKENED EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TD HAISHEN WILL NOT CHANGE AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS SUCH, IT WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH VWS
AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THERE
REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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