Tropical Storm PEIPAH Advisory Per, 10.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 683 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO BE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE 091250Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE 091332Z DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W REMAINS IN A HARSH ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION.
THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO THE
RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY TYPE MOTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE 09/06Z AND 09/12Z BEST TRACK POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWED
AND REPOSITIONED BASED ON THE 090651Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND THE 091250Z
METOP-B IMAGE, RESPECTIVELY. THE UPDATED BEST TRACK POSITIONS BETTER
REFLECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS.
   B. TD PEIPAH WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR. AS THE HIGH VWS PERSISTS, THE SYSTEM MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGH SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CAUSE AN EARLY DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN A LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE
IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEEDS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
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