MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A 30 TO 40 KNOT SURGE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS (10-15 KNOT) TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE STRONG (30-40 KNOT) COLD SURGE WINDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE POOR WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVENTING THE LIMITED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, COOLER DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE COLD SURGE EVENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR. TD 30W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN