Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory Per, 21.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALIM)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
201716Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED DEEP
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TAIWAN RADAR NO LONGER DEPICTS AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OBSERVATIONS FROM
TAIPEI INDICATE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND A SOUNDING FROM TAIPEI INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEI-YU FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MEI-YU FRONT, CURRENTLY
EXTENDING TO KYUSHU, JAPAN. AN UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KAGOSHIMA,
JAPAN INDICATES THE JET IS DIPPING DOWN OVER THIS REGION. TD 06W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW JUST BEFORE
REACHING KYUSHU, AROUND TAU 24. THE TIMING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE BAROCLINC ZONE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING AND
A STRONG STEERING STR. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE ABOVE
WARNING CRITERIA (25 KNOTS) BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. REGARDLESS, TD 06W WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.//
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