Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Sa, 12.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AS WELL AS A 111814Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5 DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07W IS AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND BEGINNING TO HAVE BETTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TS DOLPHIN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR. THROUGH TAU 72, EXPECT THE STR TO FLATTEN AND ELONGATE,
CREATING A STRAIGHT-RUNNING STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS DOLPHIN.
HOWEVER, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS EXPECTED AS THE STR BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF 07W. EXPECT AVERAGE
INTENSIFICATION RATES IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST AS OHC REMAINS
STEADY AND OVERALL OUTFLOW AND VWS IS FAIRLY STANDARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE WEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWEST AS THE STR DEEPENS
AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO HIGH SSTS, LOW
VWS AND ANTICIPATED RADIAL OUTFLOW, EXPECT A JUMP IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A POSSIBLE RI SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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