Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Sa, 19.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 49//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BULK OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AN 181543Z AMSR-2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS THE
EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE CONVECTION DISPLACED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY DUE TO MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE (77 KNOTS) AMONG ALL AGENCIES AND A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 76 KNOTS. TY 07W IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES POLEWARD OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXACERBATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, DEEPER
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH VWS
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. TY
07W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
STRONG COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH LIES ALONG TRACK, BUT SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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