Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Paz, 05.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AS WELL AS PGUA RADAR
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS NOW
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-HOM TRACKS ACROSS
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 09W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. VWS
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
DIVERGENCE BEYOND TAU 96, BUT OVERALL REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN