Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Pzt, 06.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED
BANDING SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 051718Z NPP MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
 TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS POLEWARD DUE TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODERATE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST; HOWEVER, FAVORABLE SST, OHC AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM REACHING TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, SLOW MOVEMENT AND A WEAKENING TREND ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER TAIWAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM THAT SHOWS A STRONG DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W
AND TRACKS THE WEAK SYSTEM RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
OKINAWA. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POSSIBLE WEAK DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W.//
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