MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED BANDING SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 051718Z NPP MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS POLEWARD DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST; HOWEVER, FAVORABLE SST, OHC AND UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM REACHING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, SLOW MOVEMENT AND A WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT SHOWS A STRONG DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W AND TRACKS THE WEAK SYSTEM RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POSSIBLE WEAK DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W.// NNNN NNNN