MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TYPHOON LINFA IS TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR EXTENSION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR EXTENSION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, TY LINFA WILL TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA THROUGH HONG KONG. LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.// NNNN NNNN