Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Çar, 30.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291612Z NOAA-19 IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS SUPPORTED BY THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR FIXES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW PROVIDED
BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TS 11W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, WHICH
WILL SHIFT TS HALONG NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN ADDITION TO
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 11W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
   C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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