Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Cts, 08.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A
WELL-DEFINED EYE, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED AND SMALLER AT 5-NM DIAMETER.
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TY SOUDELOR IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 13W
WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TAIWAN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, STILL AT
TYPHOON STRENGTH, ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. HOWEVER, AFTER IT MAKES A
FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 24, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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