MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 32// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCE INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 16W'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY- CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271655Z AMSU-B IMAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE BANDING BREAKING DOWN AND TY 16W IS STARTING TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZATION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM THE KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AMONGST RJTD, KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER CENTRAL JAPAN AND IS RECEIVING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH FROM A TUTT CELL NORTH OF GUAM AND IS BEGINNING TO RECEIVE POLAR OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 AND SHOULD ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING OVER EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THIS STAGE OF THE TRACK BUT TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND GREATEN THAN GALE- FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON CHEJU-DO (RKPC) WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM AWAY FROM THE STORM CENTER AND EXPERIENCING 45 KNOT WINDS SUSTAINED. TY 16W WILL BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL SPREAD WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEING SLIGHLTY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS AND FAVORING THE JGSM SOLUTION.// NNNN NNNN