Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Per, 25.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, EXPOSING THE LLCC. TD 17W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 72.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXPOSED TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 17W SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY END OF
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO
INITIAL POSITIONING UNCERTAINTY AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL GUIDANCE
SPREAD.//
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