Tropical Storm PHANFONE Advisory Paz, 05.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTH
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A 30-NM RAGGED EYE WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SPIRAL BANDING. A
041715Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A ROUND SIGNATURE WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE ON EIR ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POINT-SOURCE DIRECTLY
OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND INTENSITY. TY
18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT STARTS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 18W IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY INTENSE STORM FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY
TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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