MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARING OF THE WEAKENING, CENTRALIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A STEADY DECLINE IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT APPEARS TO BE ELONGATING. A 181322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SINCE 1322Z. A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THE LLCC IS MOVING NORTH OF A LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR, WHICH HAS BEEN STEADILY ISOLATING THE LLCC FROM THE WARMER TROPICAL AIR MASS WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, BUT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BRINGING THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SEPARATES FROM THE LLCC, LEADING TO A LOWER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. B. TS MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE STR. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND DEFORMATION OF THE LLCC, WILL LEAD TO THE FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A WIDE SPREAD BEYOND AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO LOSE THE LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 24, HOWEVER, AS THE LLCC TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS HIGH EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.// NNNN NNNN