Tropical Storm SON-TINH Advisory Per, 25.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW,
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS PROVIDING GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN AMPLIFYING THE
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD PORTIONS OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO TS 24W IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE COLD DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
   B. TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS
LIFESPAN, TRACKING OUT THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TS 24W WILL
CONTINUE ON NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK, STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS IT
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DYNAMIC
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 24W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VIETNAM, JUST SOUTH OF HANOI. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 24W WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWS IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND ENCOUNTERS THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST.//
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