Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Cu, 08.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND COMPACT FEEDER
BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE ON A
070601Z 36 GHZ GCOM PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 06W IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR ISABELA JUST AFTER TAU 48.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM WATER SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY NOUL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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