MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED AND OFFSET EASTWARD OF A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A LARGE FEEDER BAND TRAILS THE LLC SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (INVEST 91W). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY AN INDUCED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS AT 30C) ARE PROVIDING VENTILATION AND FUEL TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND, BY TAU 72, DISSIPATE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AFTER IT CROSSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH KOREA. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING TO OVER 300 NM AT TAU 72, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.// NNNN NNNN