MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SHARP OUTLINE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE DVORAK FIX ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEIZHOU PENINSULA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, TYPHOON KAI-TAK WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. // NNNN NNNN