Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Per, 16.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SHARP OUTLINE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE DVORAK FIX ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEIZHOU PENINSULA
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, TYPHOON KAI-TAK WILL RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST.    //
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