Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Per, 18.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING
TO ELONGATE ALONG THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH A SMALL FLARE OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) (25 TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND A 3.0/3.0 DVORAK FROM PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR, WITH DECREASING SURFACE CONDITIONS AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH VWS,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN UNTIL THE LLCC IS FULLY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 36. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WIDELY DIVERGE AFTERWARDS AS MANY OF THE
MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX SUPPORTING THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.//
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