MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 121805Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS TD 02W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 65 NM AT TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS AND HIGH VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN