MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED 75NM NE FROM ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND FROM A 131322Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS. TD NURI CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NE AND HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (25KT+) VWS THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) SST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD NURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE SE CHINA COAST APPROXIMATELY 125NM WSW OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 06. HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING UP TO 200NM BY TAU 24 AS THEY HAVE DIFFICULTY TRACKING A WEAK VORTEX OVER LAND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN