Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory Cts, 11.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 101848Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED BANDING AROUND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 101313Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS AND THE
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 AND 40 KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN THE RAIN
FLAGGED AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SSTS AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS HAIKUI WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE TO UNFAVORABLE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO COOLER WATERS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96
SOUTH OF HUE, ON VIETNAM'S CENTRAL COAST. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, REACHING FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POOR AGREEMENT
AFTER TAU 48, AS SOME MODELS DELAY THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
TRACK SPEEDS VARY. COAMPS IS THE LONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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