MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 24// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T2.8. UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. TS 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IN-STREAM WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS KAI-TAK IS FORECAST TO STAY ON THE SAME TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WEAKENS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEVELOPMENT, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72 OR POSSIBLY SOONER, AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN MALAYSIA, JUST SOUTH OF THE THAI BORDER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS HEDGED JUST SOUTH OF CONW TO OFFSET NAVGEM, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN