MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS WELL AS OBSCURING THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 112224Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS PHILIPPINE RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY, BOTH OF WHICH DEPICTED THE BROAD OUTLINES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNTOS) FROM RJTD AND 2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W LIES IN AN OVEALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). WHILE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM, THE PREDOMINATE FLOW IN THE REGION IS NORTHEASTERLY FROM A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TAIWAN, WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME PRESSURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 02W WILL TRACK ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG JUST AFTER TAU 48. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. AS PREVIOULY MENTIONED, THE ONLY INHIBITOR TO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM CAN FIGHT OFF THE PRESSURE EMANATING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER TAIWAN. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED OVER WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION ALOFT, ALLOWING IT TO OVERCOME THE PRESSURE AND INTENSIFY STEADILY. IF THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AT A SLOWER RATE, THEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION AND THUS THE INTENSITY TREND. AFTER PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS AT TAU 36, INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE OVER LAND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HWRF BEING THE LEFT OUTLIER AND THE GFS BEING THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARDS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HWRF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN