Tropical Storm NURI Advisory Cu, 12.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION,
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS WELL AS OBSCURING
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF A 112224Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS PHILIPPINE
RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY, BOTH OF WHICH DEPICTED THE BROAD OUTLINES OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNTOS) FROM
RJTD AND 2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W LIES IN
AN OVEALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). WHILE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL
POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM, THE PREDOMINATE FLOW IN THE REGION IS
NORTHEASTERLY FROM A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TAIWAN, WHICH IS
PRODUCING SOME PRESSURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR CENTERED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W WILL TRACK ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF
HONG KONG JUST AFTER TAU 48. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36,
REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. AS PREVIOULY MENTIONED, THE ONLY
INHIBITOR TO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM
CAN FIGHT OFF THE PRESSURE EMANATING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
TAIWAN. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC NOW
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED OVER WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND
SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION ALOFT,
ALLOWING IT TO OVERCOME THE PRESSURE AND INTENSIFY STEADILY. IF THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AT A SLOWER RATE, THEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION AND THUS
THE INTENSITY TREND. AFTER PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS AT TAU 36, INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE OVER LAND THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HWRF BEING THE LEFT OUTLIER AND THE GFS BEING THE RIGHT
OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARDS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE HWRF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN