Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory Cu, 11.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A MORE RAGGED 32 NM EYE THAN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN THE PAST
6-12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL
TO THE SOUTHWEST, INDICATING WEAKENING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE VISIBLE ON EIR AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 101701Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.5 BY
PGTW AND 6.0 BY RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DECENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT SSTS (28-29C)REMAIN FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN TY
20W. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP REVEALS
DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN IN THE OUTER BANDS AND WRAPPING TOWARD
THE CENTER OF TY 20W PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE PREVIOUSLY STATED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HAGIBIS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE EASTERN WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 101127Z ASCAT-B AND WESTERN WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY THE 101152Z ASCAT-A PASSES.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST, TY HAGIBIS WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
TRACK ALMOST DUE NORTH ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AT TAU 24 AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MAKING A QUICK
LANDFALL NEAR YOKOSUKA AT ABOUT TAU 42. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE.  TY 20W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET BY
TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 60 AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSED BY THE JET AND WILL HAVE
GAINED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 25 NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PLACED JUST SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48.//
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