Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Cts, 07.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A NASCENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061724Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 60
KNOTS FROM 061126Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS. TY
FAXAI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 14W WILL CONTINUE ON THE PRESENT TRACK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER STR. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
STR AXIS, PASSING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 40, THEN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TAU 48 TO 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 40 AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ON THE
HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LIGHT OF SEVERAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATORS BEING TRIPPED. AN INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS IS FORECAST AT LANDFALL HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REACH
MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND TAPS INTO THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
JAPAN. BEYOND TAU 48, COOLER SSTS, AND INCREASING VWS WILL COMBINE
TO OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TY 15W AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE TRANSITING RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY 60NM
SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO 125NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. BY TAU 96, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD,
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW, AND TRANSITION TO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH
INCREASING ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS.
BASED ON THE INCREASED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY TAU 96, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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