MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE BUT STILL PACKED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 15NM CLOUD-FILLED OBLONG EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INCREASING (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AFTER TAU 06. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN