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Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Paz, 24.09.

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   6(22)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   6(25)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   7(29)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   7(31)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)   8(34)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  17(30)   8(38)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   5(23)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  24(31)  18(49)   8(57)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   3(16)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  17(21)  13(34)   6(40)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  21(28)  13(41)   7(48)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  20(26)  12(38)   7(45)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   9(27)   6(33)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   8(23)   5(28)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   7(23)   5(28)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   4(21)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   3(18)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BERG
FORECASTER BERG