Tropical Storm PAKHAR Advisory Cu, 30.03.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AND DEEPEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 42 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS ALMOST DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE
AREA IS 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS,
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAVORABLE. IT SHOULD
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR NEAR NHA TRANG, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48, WITH AN INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS.
   C. TS PAKHAR WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD WITH
EGRR TO THE RIGHT OF AND GFDN TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
AVAILABLE SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS AGREE WITH THIS TRACK
SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THE SPREAD INCLUDES SOME MEMBERS WITH A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO EGRR. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON INITIAL SLOW FORWARD
MOTION.//
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