MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 04// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 42 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS ALMOST DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA IS 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS, OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAVORABLE. IT SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR NHA TRANG, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48, WITH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. C. TS PAKHAR WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD WITH EGRR TO THE RIGHT OF AND GFDN TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. AVAILABLE SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS AGREE WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THE SPREAD INCLUDES SOME MEMBERS WITH A MORE POLEWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO EGRR. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON INITIAL SLOW FORWARD MOTION.// NNNN NNNN