MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 161715Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC DISPLACED 25NM ENE OF A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE I.E., THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC POSITION AND IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER AT 3.4 (ABOUT 55 KNOTS). RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS AND A 161600Z SHIP REPORT (13.6N 113.9E, 95NM WSW OF 1600Z POSITION) SHOWED 310/39 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1000MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST VALUES (31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS NOUL CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT TRAVERSES OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VWS AS A RESULT OF THE WARM SSTS AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 KTS BY TAU 24. NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HUE, VIETNAM. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AS TS NOUL TRACKS DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AND WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER IT WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 95 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN