Tropical Storm THIRTEEN Advisory Per, 01.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.0N 130.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK,
FULLY EXPOSED SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE OUTFLOW OF TY 12W OFFSETTING THE WARM
SST AND MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 311740Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD OKINAWA UNDER THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND TY
12W. THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY,
AT BEST, UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD IT WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE HIGH
VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW FROM 12W BY TAU 24, VERY LIKELY SOONER.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR TD 13W VERY WELL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
NUMERIC FIELDS DATA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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