Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Sa, 03.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021821Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 14W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WEAK. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 14W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TS 14W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 113 NM BY TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 415 NM. NAVGEM IS THE NOTABLE
OUTLIER AND RE-CURVES TS 14W SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE REST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
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