Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory Per, 30.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
44//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST SECTOR, AN
INDICATION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND PLACED JUST INSIDE THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 7 DEGREES POLEWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE JAPANESE ISLAND CHAIN, IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TEMBIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK,
MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA, WITHIN SIX HOURS
THEN DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED TAEBAEK MOUNTAIN RANGE. ITS WEAK REMNANTS
WILL EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY
TAU 24. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT TS 15W WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AFTER TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 12 THEN ERRATICALLY DIVERGE AFTERWARD, A TYPICAL
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STORM VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER HALF DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TS 15W'S DISSIPATION
OVER LAND.   //
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