Tropical Storm TAPAH Advisory Paz, 22.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (TAPAH) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD FIELD AND A BROAD EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211601Z
GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55
KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 18W IS
EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 18W HAS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LITTLE TO NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 18W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
IN THE SHORT TERM. AS TS 18W TRACKS AROUND THE STR THE TRACK WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY. AS TS 18W TRACKS AROUND THE STR IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL CAUSE TS 18W TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. AFTER ETT, A GALE FORCE WIND FIELD WILL
REMAIN AND RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH AN INCREASING ALONG-
TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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