Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory Cts, 12.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION
HAS OBSCURED THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON EIR AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KTS (PGTW) AND
T5.5/102 KTS (RJTD), THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KTS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A TIME-LATE 111117Z SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 108 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SLIGHT WEAKENING
AS IT BEGINS TO BE SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 20W IS
TRANSITING THROUGH A REGION OF MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 20W IS TRACKING POLEWARD STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 20W WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF HONSHU UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. PRIOR TO LANDFALL,
INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE TY 20W TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SHEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL ALSO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 18,
THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE TOKYO AREA.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EAST OF HONSHU. BY TAU 36, TY 20W WILL BE A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FORWARD SPEED AND SYSTEM
DIRECTION, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN