Tropical Storm LAN Advisory Pzt, 23.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 25W HAS RAPIDLY COMPLETED EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER WESTERN JAPAN. A 221811Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAPAN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EVIDENT. MIYAKE-JIMA AIRPORT, LOCATED
55NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION, REPORTED MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS OF 68 KNOTS (10-MIN AVERAGE). ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS
WITHIN TOKYO BAY ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70
KNOTS...YOKOSUKA'S UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 62 KNOTS...TOKYO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING 48 GUSTING TO 66 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SLP ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON MY INITIAL SEARCH IS 952.8MB, WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO APPROXIMATELY 94 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN
LINE WITH THIS SLP VALUE AND IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5/5.5 (77/102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TY
25W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 50-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON
STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH TAU 12, WHICH WILL PRODUCE STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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