MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND EXPANSIVE RAIN
BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 151506Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REFLECTS THE
PARTIAL EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 151204Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 90 KTS AND FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0-T5.5 (77-102 KTS). TY 26W IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER LAND AROUND TAU
48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH TRACK GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. LIKEWISE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR STEADY TO
RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN
NNNN
