Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory Çar, 20.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) JUST NORTH OF PALAUI ISLAND, PHILIPPINES WITH THE CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 191304Z ASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWS A
COMPACTS LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). DECENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) ARE PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE STRONG (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IMPACTING TY 27W, MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL
MARGINAL. TY 27W HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DRIFTING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
STR CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 27W WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LUZON
AND ACCELERATE AS THE STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND WILL DROP TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TY 27W WILL
ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 18 AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS STRONG CROSS TRACK
AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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