Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory Sa, 07.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061530Z INFRARED HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TD 29W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE HAS CHANGED, FORECAST INTENSITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED
IN THE LATER TAUS AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
THAILAND THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS OVER THE MALAY
PENINSULA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. TD 29W
WILL SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND TRANSITS THE
ANDAMAN SEA. TD 29W WILL REACH OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT
DISSIPATES TD 29W INTO A LARGER CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AFTER TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
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